By Mr. Maverick

Invention sparks invention. That is a timeless principle that anyone can confirm, especially during these times. It is obvious that we are witnessing, on a daily basis, a “flood” of technological innovation that promises to alter our lives in yet unfathomable ways. Artificial Intelligence (AI), Synthetic Biology, Nanotechnology, Robotics and Quantum Mechanics, all technologies of unprecedented power, compound a technological wave of inconceivable magnitude.

Indeed, as you might have already thought, technological revolutions have taken place time and again during the course of human history. The one that stands before us, however, possesses such a vast and profound transformative potential, that it promises to reshape our world entirely, in ways that are both awe-inspiring and harrowing.

The coming wave is, however, defined by four inherent features that differentiate it fundamentally from previous ones, according to Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DEEPMIND and INFLECTION AI. First and foremost, through these technologies we will witness an enormous transfer of power from traditional actors like states toward anyone with the capacity, and will, to use these technologies. It is highly likely so, that a single person, with the right wherewithal, could control a fleet of attack drones or initiate a massive lethal pandemic, through the power of AI and synthetic biology respectively. Asymmetry therefore, is feature number one.

Second of all, these technologies are evolving at a bewildering pace, changing steadily almost every aspect of the world. Due to the ever-increasing computational power, the rate of change in our digital age is nearing unthinkable levels. This accounts for the second feature of the coming wave, which is hyper-evolution.

Thirdly, this technological revolution will not be limited to clear-cut, predictable and easy to restrict areas. It will be ubiquitous, from household devices, to government infrastructure. The technologies of the coming wave as outlined above, are extremely powerful, mostly because they are basically general. Evidently, if anyone is building a nuclear weapon, it’s obvious what it’s for. But a deep learning system could potentially be designed for gaming purposes yet capable of flying a swarm of bombers. Omni-use is thus feature number three.

Finally, for all of history, technology has just been a device, a tool in the service of humans, expanding their capabilities and ameliorating their living standards. But what if some of those tools obtained a certain degree of autonomy, vindicating the ghastly idea of a self-directed and self-propelling technological force? The fourth feature is then autonomy.

It becomes quite clear, that we are approaching a pivotal moment in the history of our species. Apparently, countless questions must have popped up by now. How will life be in the next 5 to 10 years, let alone the next 20? How will we navigate through openness on one side, and extended  violence of privacy on the other? How will security and freedom, the fundamental principles of global order, evolve and how will their interrelation shape the coming global order? Will we be able to contain, that is maintain control, over these powerful technologies, and nullify their potential harmful consequences? Will states achieve a certain level of consensus, in face of the potential calamity that these technologies could instigate?

These are all coherent and valid questions that leaders need to contemplate, in order to address the existential dilemmas that emerge, and forge a peaceful and prosperous path for humanity.

Unequivocally, there are two particular truths that distinguish the evolution of our species. The first one is that technology is the single greatest accelerant of progress and power in history. The second one is that humans, and consequently states, are constantly vying for power. The coming wave of technology leaves no room for counteractive antagonism. The stakes are higher than ever, and it is therefore incumbent upon us to work in tandem and face collectively the challenges that lie ahead. Otherwise, catastrophe seems inescapable.