Israel and the U.S. made a serious gamble when the attacks against Iran were initiated. It is a sign of an addiction to have lost so much money on Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and still hope to gain something more than a Pyrrhic victory (at best). Other actors, individuals and institutions are, likewise, gambling, making financial decisions and trading depending on geopolitical and geoeconomic factors. Usually these are corporate insiders capitalizing on information asymmetry. In Israel Wall Street bastards are not the only ones making a quick shekel. Two days before Operation Rising Lion in June 2025, an Israel Air Force reservist, a humble major, attended a classified briefing. Naturally, this involved a confidentiality agreement but still messaged a civilian acquaintance sharing that the strike would occur on the night of June 12, having him place a large bet on Polymarket. The friend wagered that the strike would happen before July, won $162,663, and later bet successfully on when the operation would end. The winnings were split between the two via a cryptocurrency wallet opened in the officer’s name, which he later liquidated for approximately NIS 200,000. The civilian also shared the information with five additional contacts, leaving more footprints. 

Money was sweet, and the method surely thrilling, so they continued in September 2025, when the officer passed details of a planned strike in Yemen, netting the pair $5,000. At the start of 2026, they attempted to do the same, placing bets on renewed Iranian front activity by the end of January and by the end of March. When media reports surfaced about an ongoing investigation, the civilian changed his Polymarket username and cancelled some wagers, while both men deleted their correspondence. The State Attorney’s Office ultimately charged the major with transferring secret information, accepting a bribe, and obstruction of justice, while the civilian faces charges including aggravated espionage.

There are a lot of interesting things to keep from this story and the more you explore it, the more depth you can discover. Firstly, it signals that even something as insignificant as a bet can be a source of intelligence. The accounts were serial winners, creating a success pattern that was too suspicious and the civilian shared information to his own network, making this more discoverable. At the same time, paradoxically blockchain technology makes exposing insider trading like this potentially easier. This happens because crypto transactions are recorded on an immutable ledger that anyone can audit. Another thing to mention is how the media is a double-edged sword here. On the one hand, confidentiality agreements are not enough to protect state secrets when a big financial compensation is available. But when the news highlight that the perpetrators were punished, they also warn and threaten similar holders of insider info. Think twice before capitalizing on what you know. On the other hand it teaches hackers to specifically monitor such elements of the prediction market ecosystem, which further endangers state secrets, where a leak can remove the element of surprise. Even if the market itself is safe, one can place traps around the market, since it involves certain social and technical elements in between.