By Mr. Maverick

The year is 2024. The world is still transitioning to a multipolar system, a distinctively different order than the one that preceded it, namely the bipolar order of the Cold War. However negligible phonetically, semantically, let alone practically, the distance between the two is yawning. The international order has undergone tremendous changes, and it will likely continue to do so. The question that plausibly ensues, is, are we capable of acclimating rapidly to this fundamental change?

Early in 2024, without being particularly meticulous, one can safely assume that the international community is sailing in uncharted waters. Randomness, unpredictability and abruptness protrude, fueling the insecurities of leaders and citizens across the globe. A number of destabilizing factors have rendered the international equilibrium all the more fragile. The exponential growth of technology and the subsequent proliferation of power, for example, has suddenly multiplied the number of international actors capable of, potentially instigating a regional crisis, as the one we are currently witnessing in Gaza.

Moreover, new regional rising powers, such as India, Saudi Arabia and Brazil, are gradually countervailing the, until recently, unshakeable predominance of the United States on a global scale, paving the way for a new configuration of power.

Now imagine that global stability rests upon certain “tectonic plates”, which resemble a specific modus operandi or state of affairs for the international community. One plate, for instance, is the current international framework comprised by organizations such as the United Nations, which, by the way, under the heavy pressure of numerous rising powers is bound for reform, given that the Security Council is out-of-date and does not reflect the new balance of power.

Amidst other concurrent changes, the reconfiguration of power shifts gradually these tectonic plates, creating thus a state of instability. This ineluctable reflexive response is deep rooted in the conduct of world affairs throughout human history.

Evidently, in 2024, we are steadily witnessing the repercussions of these tectonic shifts. States, as humans, have always been vying for power, and in this state of imbalance, power maximization becomes even more tantalizing. Aberrant behaviors will become all the more unremarkable in international affairs.

The future seems portentous, gloomy even. To answer the previous question on our adaptability, it seems like a generational issue. Current leaders across the globe belong to a different generation that lived through entirely different times. The past generation had grown up in a world that was somewhat ordered, reasonable almost predictable. A world where certain principles governed and the elements of surprise and constant adjustment were not that obtrusive. 

On the contrary, the new generation, having been nurtured in a highly unpredictable and dynamic environment, sees the world through different lenses. Caution, patience and realism prevail, imbuing the spirit of the age. We want to believe, therefore, and we have to, that the new generation will be fit to navigate through this foggy sea, stirring the wheel with prudence to avoid the reefs of disorder. After all, as William A. Ward said: “the pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”